Publication: measuring effects of geoengineering on agriculture using volcanoes / August 10, 2018 by Solomon Hsiang

Jon Proctor, Solomon Hsiang, and coauthors published a study in Nature estimating the effect of solar radiation management (SRM) on global agricultural production. The paper exploits the historical eruption of massive volcanoes that inject sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere to understand the effect of changing light conditions on crop yields. The paper finds that benefits from cooling, the intended effect of SRM, are fully offset by harm to yields via shading.

Read the study ungated here.

A resource page for the article is here.

Press release here.

Visualization of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols injected into the atmosphere after the eruption of Mt Pinatubo. Each frame is a month. Visualization by Jon Proctor & Solomon Hsiang.

Paper: Pricing climate / November 20, 2017 by Solomon Hsiang

Tatyana Deryugina and Solomon Hsiang have a new NBER working paper out titled "The Marginal Product of Climate". The analysis develops a formal theory for how overall economic productivity due to the climate should be valued, accounting for the fact that populations adapt to changes in their climate. They apply their approach to data on the United States and estimate that "business as usual" warming is worth roughly $6.7 trillion in foregone production within the US market economy.

Read the paper here.

Publication: Crop-damaging temperatures increase suicide rates in India / July 31, 2017 by GlobalPolicyLab Member

Tamma Carleton has a new paper out in PNAS linking the climate to suicide rates in India.

The analysis is the first to provide large-scale empirical evidence that the climate influences suicide rates in a developing country. The study shows that temperature during India's main agricultural growing season has a substantial influence over annual suicide rates, such that heating up the country by just 1 degree C on one day causes approximately 65 annual suicides. This effect appears to materialize through an agricultural channel in which high temperatures cause crop losses and economic distress, leading some to commit suicide in response. Carleton estimates that warming trends experienced in India since 1980 are responsible for a total of over 59,000 suicides.

See the paper here.

Paper: Understanding farmer crop choice in response to climate change / January 2, 2017 by Solomon Hsiang

James Rising has a new working paper Weather-driven adaptation in perennial crop systems:An integrated study of Brazilian coffee yields, demonstrating how farmers in Brazil cope with changing environmental conditions by altering the portfolio of coffee crops they maintain. The analysis develops a novel structural Bayesian modeling approach that embeds reduced form modeling estimates, allowing James to solve (for the first time) the well-known "problem with perennials", i.e. the fact that analysts and policy-makes cannot generally observe the number of long-live plants (perennials) that farmers maintain on a farm. The analysis is important because it demonstrates how farmers cope with a changing climate by changing their investment decisions, sometimes amplifying the economic impact of changes in climate.

Publication: Social and economic impacts of climate / September 8, 2016 by Solomon Hsiang

Tamma Carleton and Solomon Hsiang published an article in Science discussing and synthesizing the methods and results used to understand the impact of climate from the last decade. We demonstrate how findings across the literature and sectors are linked, identify commonalities across numerous studies, and compute how much (i) various aspects of the current climate contribute to to historical social outcomes, (ii) how much climate change to date has affected outcomes, and (iii) quantitative projections of the future. We identify that understanding "adaptation gaps" is the most important area for future research.

Op-Ed in the Guardian / September 21, 2015 by GlobalPolicyLab Member

Kyle Meng and Solomon Hsiang published an Op-Ed in the Guardian explaining how the coming El Nino is likely to affect the 3 trillion people living in the tropics and what we can do about it.

Successful team visit to NZ Maori Trust / August 24, 2015 by GlobalPolicyLab Member

Tamma Carleton and Solomon Hsiang visited New Zealand to work with a Maori Land Trust in an effort to develop new frameworks and techniques for measuring sustainable development.

Report on the Economic Risks of Climate Change / June 24, 2014 by GlobalPolicyLab Member

Solomon Hsiang, Amir Jina, James Rising, and colleagues published a major report--The American Climate Prospectus--providing the first detailed assessment of the economic risks posed by climate change to the US economy. The analysis was the foundation of the Risky Business report, published simultaneously by Michael Bloomberg, Hank Paulson, Tom Steyer, and colleagues.

Read the Berkeley press release.

Read the American Climate Prospectus.

Read the Risky Business Report.